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La Liga · Spain
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano host Elche in the La Liga (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Rayo Vallecano had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 22. Elche had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 and 7 of Elche's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rayo Vallecano averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Elche averaged 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Rayo Vallecano and 1.16 from Elche. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 28%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rayo Vallecano (green) and Elche (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | DDWLW | 1.50 | 2.20 | 90% | 70% |
| Elche | DDWLD | 1.30 | 1.90 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Rayo Vallecano Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Valencia vs Villarreal · 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Racing Santander vs Espanyol · 24 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50