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La Liga · Spain
Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction and preview
7 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Valencia host Real Madrid in the La Liga (Spain) on 7 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Valencia had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 17. Real Madrid had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 29 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Valencia's last 10 and 8 of Real Madrid's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Valencia averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Real Madrid averaged 1.87 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.76 goals from Valencia and 2.10 from Real Madrid. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 67%, against 9%, 16% and 74% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Valencia (green) and Real Madrid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | WLDDL | 0.80 | 1.70 | 40% | 50% |
| Real Madrid | WWWWW | 2.90 | 1.30 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Real Madrid Win | 76% | 1.27 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Real Madrid HT & FT | 56% | 1.73 |
| Real Madrid 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club · 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 - Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna · 7 Nov 2026, 15:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Malaga vs Racing Santander · 7 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67