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J1 League · Japan
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Urawa host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League (Japan) on 25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Urawa had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. V-varen Nagasaki had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Urawa's last 10 and 5 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Urawa averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 15 matches; away from home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.15 goals from Urawa and 1.38 from V-varen Nagasaki. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 23%, against 58%, 25% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Urawa (green) and V-varen Nagasaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa | WWWLW | 2.20 | 1.40 | 60% | 80% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | WLDDL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Urawa Win | 58% | 1.60 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock · 25 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama · 25 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba · 25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40