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National League - South · England
Tonbridge Angels vs Hemel Hempstead Town prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tonbridge Angels host Hemel Hempstead Town in the National League - South (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.46, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town.
Going into the match, Tonbridge Angels had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 11. Hemel Hempstead Town had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Tonbridge Angels's last 10 and 6 of Hemel Hempstead Town's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tonbridge Angels averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Hemel Hempstead Town averaged 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Tonbridge Angels and 0.65 from Hemel Hempstead Town. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 19%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge Angels | WLLWD | 1.60 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
| Hemel Hempstead Town | DWLDD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 60% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Sep 2026 · Hemel Hempstead Town 1–1 Tonbridge Angels
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.54 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Tonbridge Angels form and statistics
- Hemel Hempstead Town form and statistics
- National League - South statistics
Other National League - South matches that day
- Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Folkestone Invicta vs AFC Totton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Slough Town vs Horsham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–2