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National League - South · England
Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maidstone Utd host Maidenhead in the National League - South (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead.
Going into the match, Maidstone Utd had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Maidenhead had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Maidstone Utd's last 10 and 4 of Maidenhead's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maidstone Utd averaged 2.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Maidenhead averaged 1.27 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from Maidstone Utd and 0.73 from Maidenhead. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 12%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidstone Utd | WLLDL | 1.60 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
| Maidenhead | LWLDL | 1.30 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other National League - South matches that day
- Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Folkestone Invicta vs AFC Totton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Slough Town vs Horsham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–2 - Tonbridge Angels vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.46