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National League - South · England
Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ebbsfleet United host Weston-super-Mare in the National League - South (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare.
Going into the match, Ebbsfleet United had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 6. Weston-super-Mare had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ebbsfleet United's last 10 and 7 of Weston-super-Mare's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ebbsfleet United averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Weston-super-Mare averaged 1.10 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Ebbsfleet United and 1.04 from Weston-super-Mare. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 22%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United | WWWLD | 1.80 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
| Weston-super-Mare | DLDDW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Ebbsfleet United Win | 50% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Ebbsfleet United form and statistics
- Weston-super-Mare form and statistics
- National League - South statistics
Other National League - South matches that day
- Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Folkestone Invicta vs AFC Totton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Slough Town vs Horsham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–2 - Tonbridge Angels vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - South
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.46