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J1 League · Japan
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tokyo Verdy host Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League (Japan) on 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Tokyo Verdy had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Avispa Fukuoka had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tokyo Verdy's last 10 and 6 of Avispa Fukuoka's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tokyo Verdy averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Avispa Fukuoka averaged 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Tokyo Verdy and 0.99 from Avispa Fukuoka. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 33%, against 29%, 30% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tokyo Verdy (green) and Avispa Fukuoka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | DLLDD | 0.60 | 1.50 | 40% | 30% |
| Avispa Fukuoka | LLLWL | 0.80 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Avispa Fukuoka Win | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga · 24 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol · 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia · 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse · 24 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win @ 1.40