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J1 League · Japan
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kashima host Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League (Japan) on 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Kashima had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 14. Kashiwa Reysol had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Kashima's last 10 and 7 of Kashiwa Reysol's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kashima averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Kashiwa Reysol averaged 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.19 goals from Kashima and 1.74 from Kashiwa Reysol. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 30%, against 42%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kashima (green) and Kashiwa Reysol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | DWWWW | 2.30 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Kashiwa Reysol | DLWWD | 2.50 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Apr 2026 · Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Kashima
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga · 24 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka · 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia · 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse · 24 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win @ 1.40