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Premier Division · Ireland
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
St Patrick's Athl. host Shelbourne in the Premier Division (Ireland) on 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: St Patrick's Athl. 1–2 Shelbourne.
Going into the match, St Patrick's Athl. had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Shelbourne had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 and 8 of Shelbourne's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home St Patrick's Athl. averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.79 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Shelbourne averaged 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from St Patrick's Athl. and 1.01 from Shelbourne. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 28%, against 59%, 24% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between St Patrick's Athl. (green) and Shelbourne (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | WWWDL | 1.50 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
| Shelbourne | WDWLL | 1.50 | 1.50 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Aug 2026 · Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's Athl.
- 15 May 2026 · St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Shelbourne
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| St Patrick's Athl. Win | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier Division matches that day
- Bohemians vs Waterford · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Drogheda United vs Derry City · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–0 - Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers · 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Premier Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–0