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Serie B · Brazil
Sport Recife vs Criciuma prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sport Recife host Criciuma in the Serie B (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Sport Recife had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Criciuma had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sport Recife's last 10 and 1 of Criciuma's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sport Recife averaged 1.80 goals scored and 0.95 conceded across 20 matches; away from home Criciuma averaged 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Sport Recife and 0.84 from Criciuma. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 26%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sport Recife (green) and Criciuma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | LDWWL | 1.30 | 1.50 | 80% | 70% |
| Criciuma | WWLWW | 1.00 | 1.10 | 10% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Criciuma 1–0 Sport Recife
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
| Sport Recife Win | 39% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - São Bernardo vs Vila Nova · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Avai vs Botafogo SP · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Operario-PR vs Athletic Club · 23 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33