Home › League stats › Serie B › São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Serie B · Brazil
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
São Bernardo host Vila Nova in the Serie B (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, São Bernardo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Vila Nova had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of São Bernardo's last 10 and 2 of Vila Nova's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home São Bernardo averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Vila Nova averaged 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from São Bernardo and 1.10 from Vila Nova. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 32%, against 32%, 30% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | LDLWD | 1.30 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Vila Nova | DWDWW | 1.30 | 0.80 | 20% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Jul 2026 · Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Avai vs Botafogo SP · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Sport Recife vs Criciuma · 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Operario-PR vs Athletic Club · 23 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33