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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ajax Win — Ajax to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Sparta Rotterdam had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 22. Ajax had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 and 8 of Ajax's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sparta Rotterdam averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Ajax averaged 2.92 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 3.27 from Ajax. From that it rates a home win at 10%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 77%, against 15%, 19% and 66% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sparta Rotterdam (green) and Ajax (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | WDLLD | 1.60 | 2.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Ajax | WWLDD | 3.10 | 1.50 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| Ajax Win | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Ajax HT & FT | 47% | 2.05 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 46% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Twente · 25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen · 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord · 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.30 - Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior · 25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50