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Eredivisie · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar host Twente in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, AZ Alkmaar had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 11. Twente had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10 and 7 of Twente's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AZ Alkmaar averaged 2.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Twente averaged 2.07 scored and 1.64 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.67 from Twente. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 44%, 24% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AZ Alkmaar (green) and Twente (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | WDWLW | 2.00 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
| Twente | WLWDW | 2.10 | 1.00 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Twente
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax · 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: Ajax Win @ 1.44 - NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen · 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord · 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.30 - Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior · 25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50