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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 25 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Fortuna Sittard had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 18. Excelsior had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Fortuna Sittard's last 10 and 7 of Excelsior's last 10; 7 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fortuna Sittard averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Excelsior averaged 2.83 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.87 goals from Fortuna Sittard and 2.03 from Excelsior. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 42%, against 41%, 26% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fortuna Sittard (green) and Excelsior (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | DDWWL | 1.80 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
| Excelsior | LLDLD | 2.10 | 1.90 | 70% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Fortuna Sittard Win | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.