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Segunda División · Spain
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Sociedad II host Almeria in the Segunda División (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria.
Going into the match, Real Sociedad II had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 21. Almeria had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Real Sociedad II's last 10 and 2 of Almeria's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Sociedad II averaged 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Almeria averaged 1.13 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.02 goals from Real Sociedad II and 2.24 from Almeria. From that it rates a home win at 15%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 64%, against 25%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Sociedad II (green) and Almeria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II | LLWLL | 1.70 | 2.10 | 80% | 80% |
| Almeria | WWWWW | 2.00 | 0.50 | 20% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División matches that day
- Las Palmas vs Castellón · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–3 - Sporting Gijon vs Albacete · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Eibar vs Mallorca · 17 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36