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Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Las Palmas host Castellón in the Segunda División (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Las Palmas 0–3 Castellón.
Going into the match, Las Palmas had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Castellón had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Las Palmas's last 10 and 4 of Castellón's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Las Palmas averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Castellón averaged 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Las Palmas and 1.64 from Castellón. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 48%, against 26%, 26% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Las Palmas (green) and Castellón (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | LDLLW | 1.60 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
| Castellón | LDWWW | 1.60 | 0.70 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| Castellón Win | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División matches that day
- Sporting Gijon vs Albacete · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Eibar vs Mallorca · 17 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Real Sociedad II vs Almeria · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Segunda División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44