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La Liga · Spain
Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Madrid host Sevilla in the La Liga (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Real Madrid Win — Real Madrid to win. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla.
Going into the match, Real Madrid had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 12. Sevilla had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Real Madrid's last 10 and 8 of Sevilla's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Madrid averaged 2.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Sevilla averaged 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from Real Madrid and 0.73 from Sevilla. From that it rates a home win at 74%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 9%, against 77%, 13% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Madrid (green) and Sevilla (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | WWLWW | 2.50 | 1.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Sevilla | DLLWW | 1.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Real Madrid Win | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Real Madrid 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Real Madrid HT & FT | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Malaga vs Real Sociedad · 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–5 - Celta Vigo vs Alaves · 18 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 · FT 2–1 - Osasuna vs Racing Santander · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–0