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La Liga · Spain
Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Malaga host Real Sociedad in the La Liga (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad.
Going into the match, Malaga had won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 17. Real Sociedad had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Malaga's last 10 and 7 of Real Sociedad's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Malaga averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Real Sociedad averaged 1.60 scored and 1.87 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from Malaga and 1.97 from Real Sociedad. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 47%, against 28%, 27% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Malaga (green) and Real Sociedad (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | DLLDD | 0.70 | 1.70 | 60% | 40% |
| Real Sociedad | DWWLL | 1.40 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Real Madrid Win @ 1.22 - Celta Vigo vs Alaves · 18 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 · FT 2–1 - Osasuna vs Racing Santander · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–0