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La Liga · Spain
Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Celta Vigo host Alaves in the La Liga (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves.
Going into the match, Celta Vigo had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Alaves had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Celta Vigo's last 10 and 5 of Alaves's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Celta Vigo averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Alaves averaged 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Celta Vigo and 0.84 from Alaves. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 25%, against 43%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Celta Vigo (green) and Alaves (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | LDWLD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
| Alaves | LDLLW | 1.60 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Real Madrid Win @ 1.22 - Malaga vs Real Sociedad · 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–5 - Osasuna vs Racing Santander · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–0