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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Real Jaén vs Rayo Majadahonda prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Jaén host Rayo Majadahonda in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda.
Going into the match, Real Jaén had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Rayo Majadahonda had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Real Jaén's last 10 and 4 of Rayo Majadahonda's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Jaén averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Rayo Majadahonda averaged 0.57 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Real Jaén and 0.57 from Rayo Majadahonda. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 16%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Jaén (green) and Rayo Majadahonda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Jaén | DDLWW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Rayo Majadahonda | LLLWD | 1.00 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Real Jaén Win | 47% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Real Jaén form and statistics
- Rayo Majadahonda form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 2 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches that day
- Real Murcia vs Zaragoza · 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 0–0 - Gimnastic vs Atlético Madrid II · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Sant Andreu vs Juventud Torremolinos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Sant Andreu Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–2 - Real Madrid II vs Antequera · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 · FT 3–2