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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Gimnastic vs Atlético Madrid II prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gimnastic host Atlético Madrid II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II.
Going into the match, Gimnastic had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Atlético Madrid II had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Gimnastic's last 10 and 5 of Atlético Madrid II's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gimnastic averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Atlético Madrid II averaged 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.82 goals from Gimnastic and 1.44 from Atlético Madrid II. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 30%, against 36%, 28% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gimnastic (green) and Atlético Madrid II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic | DLLLW | 1.20 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Atlético Madrid II | DLLDW | 1.60 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Gimnastic form and statistics
- Atlético Madrid II form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 2 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches that day
- Real Jaén vs Rayo Majadahonda · 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Real Murcia vs Zaragoza · 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 0–0 - Sant Andreu vs Juventud Torremolinos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Sant Andreu Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–2 - Real Madrid II vs Antequera · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 · FT 3–2