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Peterborough vs Burton Albion prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Peterborough host Burton Albion in the League One (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion.
Going into the match, Peterborough had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Burton Albion had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Peterborough's last 10 and 6 of Burton Albion's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Peterborough averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Burton Albion averaged 0.80 scored and 1.10 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Peterborough and 1.05 from Burton Albion. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 30%, against 51%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Peterborough (green) and Burton Albion (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | WWLWL | 1.50 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
| Burton Albion | LDLWD | 1.20 | 1.50 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League One matches that day
- Barnsley vs Cambridge United · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–2 - Bradford vs Stevenage · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 2–0 - Leicester vs Doncaster · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Leyton Orient vs Blackpool · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–0 - Plymouth vs Huddersfield · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–2 - Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Stockport County vs Bromley · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Stockport County Win @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Wigan vs Reading · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Wycombe vs Notts County · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–0 - Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44