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Super League 1 · Greece
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Panathinaikos host Asteras Tripolis in the Super League 1 (Greece) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Panathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis.
Going into the match, Panathinaikos had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 5. Asteras Tripolis had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Panathinaikos's last 10 and 5 of Asteras Tripolis's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Panathinaikos averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Asteras Tripolis averaged 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.67 goals from Panathinaikos and 0.59 from Asteras Tripolis. From that it rates a home win at 81%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 5%, against 75%, 17% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Panathinaikos (green) and Asteras Tripolis (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | WLWWW | 1.80 | 0.50 | 40% | 40% |
| Asteras Tripolis | WDWDD | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos Win | 77% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Panathinaikos 1st Half Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| Panathinaikos HT & FT | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Super League 1 matches that day
- PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 · 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Super League 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis · 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Super League 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 1–2 - Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Super League 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–2 - Kalamata vs OFI · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Super League 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 · FT 4–3