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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Paide vs Trans Narva prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paide host Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paide 2–1 Trans Narva.
Going into the match, Paide had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Trans Narva had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Paide's last 10 and 5 of Trans Narva's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paide averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.26 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Trans Narva averaged 0.43 scored and 2.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from Paide and 0.72 from Trans Narva. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 16%, against 60%, 21% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paide (green) and Trans Narva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | WLWWL | 1.70 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| Trans Narva | LDDLD | 0.90 | 1.80 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Aug 2026 · Trans Narva 1–1 Paide
- 20 May 2026 · Trans Narva 1–0 Paide
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Paide Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Meistriliiga matches that day
- Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Meistriliiga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–0 - Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Meistriliiga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Laagri vs Vaprus · 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Meistriliiga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–0