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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Ourense CF vs Coruxo prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ourense CF host Coruxo in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo.
Going into the match, Ourense CF had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Coruxo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Ourense CF's last 10 and 7 of Coruxo's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ourense CF averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Coruxo averaged 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Ourense CF and 1.31 from Coruxo. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 45%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CF | LDWLW | 0.80 | 1.10 | 30% | 40% |
| Coruxo | LLDLD | 1.10 | 1.50 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Ourense CF Win | 49% | 1.80 |
| Ourense CF HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Gernika vs Amorebieta · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 · FT 1–2 - Compostela vs Atlético Astorga · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 · FT 4–1 - Portugalete vs Eibar II · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 - Racing Santander II vs Basconia · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53