Home › League stats › Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 › Gernika vs Amorebieta
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Gernika vs Amorebieta prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gernika host Amorebieta in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Gernika to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gernika 1–2 Amorebieta.
Going into the match, Gernika had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Amorebieta had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Gernika's last 10 and 4 of Amorebieta's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gernika averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Amorebieta averaged 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Gernika and 0.84 from Amorebieta. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 23%, against 41%, 30% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | DLDWW | 1.60 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
| Amorebieta | LWLWL | 1.20 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Amorebieta 1–2 Gernika
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.52 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.72 |
| Gernika Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- Compostela vs Atlético Astorga · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 · FT 4–1 - Ourense CF vs Coruxo · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 · FT 0–1 - Portugalete vs Eibar II · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 - Racing Santander II vs Basconia · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53