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Prva Liga · Serbia
Napredak vs Dubočica prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Napredak host Dubočica in the Prva Liga (Serbia) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Napredak 1–0 Dubočica.
Going into the match, Napredak had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Dubočica had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Napredak's last 10 and 5 of Dubočica's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Napredak averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Dubočica averaged 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Napredak and 0.74 from Dubočica. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 25%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Napredak (green) and Dubočica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Jul 2026 · Napredak 1–0 Dubočica
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Napredak Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Napredak HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Prva Liga matches that day
- Jedinstvo Ub vs Grafičar · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Prva Liga
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.44 - TSC Backa Topola vs Metalac GM · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Prva Liga
Published pick: TSC Backa Topola Win @ 1.25 - Javor vs OFK Bor 1919 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Prva Liga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 3–0 - Semendrija 1924 vs Naftagas · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Prva Liga
Published pick: Semendrija 1924 Win @ 1.33 · FT 1–1