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Serie A · Italy
Napoli vs AS Roma prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Napoli host AS Roma in the Serie A (Italy) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Napoli had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. AS Roma had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Napoli's last 10 and 4 of AS Roma's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Napoli averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 14 matches; away from home AS Roma averaged 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Napoli and 1.86 from AS Roma. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 50%, against 33%, 31% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Napoli (green) and AS Roma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Lazio vs Parma · 24 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Lazio Win @ 1.33 - Cagliari vs Bologna · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Como vs Sassuolo · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44