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Serie A · Italy
Monza vs Napoli prediction and preview
28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monza host Napoli in the Serie A (Italy) on 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Monza had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 19. Napoli had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Monza's last 10 and 6 of Napoli's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monza averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Napoli averaged 1.25 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Monza and 2.42 from Napoli. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 55%, against 21%, 24% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monza (green) and Napoli (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Genoa vs Juventus · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Juventus Win @ 1.67 - AC Milan vs Bologna · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Parma vs Udinese · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Venezia vs Inter · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57