Home › League stats › Serie A › AC Milan vs Bologna
Serie A · Italy
AC Milan vs Bologna prediction and preview
28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AC Milan host Bologna in the Serie A (Italy) on 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, AC Milan had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 11. Bologna had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of AC Milan's last 10 and 5 of Bologna's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AC Milan averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Bologna averaged 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from AC Milan and 0.92 from Bologna. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 19%, against 59%, 25% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AC Milan (green) and Bologna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| AC Milan Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Genoa vs Juventus · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Juventus Win @ 1.67 - Monza vs Napoli · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Parma vs Udinese · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Venezia vs Inter · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57