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Serie A · Italy
Monza vs Atalanta prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Stadio Brianteo, Monza
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monza host Atalanta in the Serie A (Italy) on 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Monza had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 22. Atalanta had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Monza's last 10 and 7 of Atalanta's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monza averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Atalanta averaged 1.45 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Monza and 2.18 from Atalanta. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 48%, against 28%, 26% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monza (green) and Atalanta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fiorentina vs Juventus · 8 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Inter vs Como · 8 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Genoa vs AC Milan · 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Napoli vs Lazio · 8 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67