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Serie A · Italy
Napoli vs Lazio prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC · Maradona Stadium, Naples
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Napoli host Lazio in the Serie A (Italy) on 8 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Napoli had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 18. Lazio had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 27 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Napoli's last 10 and 7 of Lazio's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Napoli averaged 2.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Lazio averaged 2.10 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Napoli and 2.00 from Lazio. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 48%, against 42%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Napoli (green) and Lazio (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.