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Serie A · Italy
Genoa vs AC Milan prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Genoa host AC Milan in the Serie A (Italy) on 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Genoa had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. AC Milan had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Genoa's last 10 and 4 of AC Milan's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Genoa averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home AC Milan averaged 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Genoa and 1.86 from AC Milan. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 56%, against 21%, 27% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Genoa (green) and AC Milan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| AC Milan Win | 53% | 1.83 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Fiorentina vs Juventus · 8 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Inter vs Como · 8 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Monza vs Atalanta · 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Napoli vs Lazio · 8 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67