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J2 League · Japan
Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Montedio Yamagata host Tegevajaro Miyazaki in the J2 League (Japan) on 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Montedio Yamagata had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Tegevajaro Miyazaki had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Montedio Yamagata's last 10 and 7 of Tegevajaro Miyazaki's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Montedio Yamagata averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Tegevajaro Miyazaki averaged 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Montedio Yamagata and 1.26 from Tegevajaro Miyazaki. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 39%, against 29%, 29% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Montedio Yamagata (green) and Tegevajaro Miyazaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | LDLLL | 0.60 | 1.20 | 30% | 30% |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | WDDLD | 1.50 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J2 League matches that day
- Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City · 25 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Iwaki vs Jubilo Iwata · 25 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Blaublitz Akita vs Imabari · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Oita Trinita vs Ventforet Kofu · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Kataller Toyama vs Consadole Sapporo · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 25 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Sagan Tosu Win @ 1.62