Home › League stats › III Liga - Group 1 › Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
III Liga - Group 1 · Poland
Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mławianka Mława host Polonia Lidzbark Warm. in the III Liga - Group 1 (Poland) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm..
Going into the match, Mławianka Mława had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 28. Polonia Lidzbark Warm. had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Mławianka Mława's last 10 and 9 of Polonia Lidzbark Warm.'s last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mławianka Mława averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Polonia Lidzbark Warm. averaged 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.52 goals from Mławianka Mława and 1.97 from Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 30%, against 43%, 24% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mławianka Mława (green) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | WWLLL | 2.00 | 2.80 | 70% | 70% |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | WDLLW | 1.50 | 2.00 | 90% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.32 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.39 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.68 |
| Mławianka Mława Win | 44% | 2.05 |
| Mławianka Mława HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Mławianka Mława form and statistics
- Polonia Lidzbark Warm. form and statistics
- III Liga - Group 1 statistics
Other III Liga - Group 1 matches that day
- Warta Sieradz vs Wisła Płock II · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Łomża vs Olimpia Zambrów · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 1
Published pick: Olimpia Zambrów Win @ 1.40 - Pelikan Łowicz vs Wigry Suwałki · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.54 - ŁKS Łódź II vs Olimpia Elbląg · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49