Home › League stats › FAW Championship › Llantwit Major vs Newport City
FAW Championship · Wales
Llantwit Major vs Newport City prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Llantwit Major host Newport City in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Llantwit Major had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 22. Newport City had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Llantwit Major's last 10 and 6 of Newport City's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Llantwit Major averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Newport City averaged 2.29 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Llantwit Major and 1.93 from Newport City. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 53%, against 31%, 25% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Llantwit Major (green) and Newport City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | WLDLW | 1.10 | 2.20 | 60% | 50% |
| Newport City | DWLDD | 2.10 | 1.70 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.54 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 48% | 1.93 |
| Newport City Win | 44% | 2.05 |
| Newport City HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Newtown AFC vs Buckley Town · 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Newtown AFC Draw No Bet @ 1.22 - Aberystwyth Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds · 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Brickfield Rangers vs Bala Town · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.38 - Caersws vs Bangor City 1876 FC · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.35 - Gresford Athletic vs Ruthin Town · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 - Guilsfield vs Porthmadog · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 - Holyhead Hotspur vs Penrhyncoch · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Llanuwchllyn vs Denbigh Town · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.32 - Mold Alexandra vs Rhyl · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.38 - Ynyshir Albions vs Swansea University · 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X