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Premier League · England
Leeds vs Manchester United prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leeds host Manchester United in the Premier League (England) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leeds 1–1 Manchester United.
Going into the match, Leeds had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Manchester United had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Leeds's last 10 and 6 of Manchester United's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leeds averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Manchester United averaged 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Leeds and 1.14 from Manchester United. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 25%, against 41%, 26% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leeds (green) and Manchester United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | LDWLD | 1.80 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Manchester United | LDDLL | 1.70 | 1.80 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Aug 2026 · Manchester United 1–1 Leeds
- 13 Apr 2026 · Manchester United 1–2 Leeds
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Arsenal Win @ 1.62 · FT 0–1 - Bournemouth vs Sunderland · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 - Brighton vs Crystal Palace · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Brighton Win @ 1.50 · FT 5–0