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Serie A · Italy
Lecce vs Genoa prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC · Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lecce host Genoa in the Serie A (Italy) on 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lecce had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 21. Genoa had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Lecce's last 10 and 4 of Genoa's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lecce averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Genoa averaged 0.50 scored and 1.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.24 goals from Lecce and 1.23 from Genoa. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 35%, against 29%, 32% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lecce (green) and Genoa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Lecce 1–0 Genoa
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Genoa Win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 35% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Juventus vs Napoli · 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Frosinone vs Torino · 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.36 - Lazio vs Cagliari · 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Cagliari +2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.23 - Como vs Venezia · 1 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Como Win @ 1.30