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J3 League · Japan
Kitakyushu vs Osaka prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kitakyushu host Osaka in the J3 League (Japan) on 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kitakyushu 3–1 Osaka.
Going into the match, Kitakyushu had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 19. Osaka had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Kitakyushu's last 10 and 5 of Osaka's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kitakyushu averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Osaka averaged 1.38 scored and 0.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Kitakyushu and 1.77 from Osaka. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 53%, against 28%, 26% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kitakyushu (green) and Osaka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | LWLDW | 1.20 | 1.90 | 60% | 50% |
| Osaka | DLDWW | 1.60 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.52 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Osaka Win | 45% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J3 League matches that day
- Kagoshima United vs Ehime FC · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.63 - Kanazawa vs Nara Club · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 - FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.65 · FT 1–0 - Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.55 - FC Gifu vs Fukushima United · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50