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Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kilmarnock host Motherwell in the Premiership (Scotland) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell.
Going into the match, Kilmarnock had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 21. Motherwell had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Kilmarnock's last 10 and 4 of Motherwell's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kilmarnock averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Motherwell averaged 1.23 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Kilmarnock and 1.26 from Motherwell. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 26%, against 29%, 25% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kilmarnock (green) and Motherwell (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | LDWDD | 1.10 | 2.10 | 60% | 50% |
| Motherwell | LLLLW | 1.10 | 1.90 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premiership matches that day
- Dundee vs Rangers · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Rangers Win @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Aberdeen vs ST Mirren · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Hibernian vs Falkirk · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1