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Premiership · Scotland
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aberdeen host ST Mirren in the Premiership (Scotland) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren.
Going into the match, Aberdeen had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. ST Mirren had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Aberdeen's last 10 and 3 of ST Mirren's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aberdeen averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home ST Mirren averaged 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from Aberdeen and 1.01 from ST Mirren. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 18%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aberdeen (green) and ST Mirren (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 May 2026 · Aberdeen 0–2 ST Mirren
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen Win | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premiership matches that day
- Dundee vs Rangers · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Rangers Win @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Hibernian vs Falkirk · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Kilmarnock vs Motherwell · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1