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Premiership · Scotland
Hibernian vs Falkirk prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hibernian host Falkirk in the Premiership (Scotland) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hibernian 1–2 Falkirk.
Going into the match, Hibernian had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Falkirk had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Hibernian's last 10 and 7 of Falkirk's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hibernian averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Falkirk averaged 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Hibernian and 0.98 from Falkirk. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 25%, against 56%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hibernian (green) and Falkirk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Falkirk 1–3 Hibernian
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Hibernian Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premiership matches that day
- Dundee vs Rangers · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Rangers Win @ 1.40 · FT 2–2 - Aberdeen vs ST Mirren · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Kilmarnock vs Motherwell · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premiership
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1