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Veikkausliiga · Finland
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
HJK Helsinki host Gnistan in the Veikkausliiga (Finland) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: HJK Helsinki 4–0 Gnistan.
Going into the match, HJK Helsinki had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 12. Gnistan had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of HJK Helsinki's last 10 and 7 of Gnistan's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home HJK Helsinki averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Gnistan averaged 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.21 goals from HJK Helsinki and 1.09 from Gnistan. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 17%, against 63%, 21% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between HJK Helsinki (green) and Gnistan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | WWDDW | 2.00 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| Gnistan | LDDWD | 1.30 | 1.20 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Sep 2026 · Gnistan 1–1 HJK Helsinki
- 23 Aug 2026 · HJK Helsinki 2–3 Gnistan
- 18 Apr 2026 · Gnistan 0–3 HJK Helsinki
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| HJK Helsinki Win | 64% | 1.45 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Veikkausliiga matches that day
- Inter Turku vs AC Oulu · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Veikkausliiga
Published pick: Inter Turku Win @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - Ilves vs SJK · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Veikkausliiga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–0 - FF Jaro vs Mariehamn · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Veikkausliiga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–1 - Lahti vs Turku PS · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Veikkausliiga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44