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First League · Russia
FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC UFA host Arsenal Tula in the First League (Russia) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.35, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC UFA 2–0 Arsenal Tula.
Going into the match, FC UFA had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Arsenal Tula had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FC UFA's last 10 and 6 of Arsenal Tula's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC UFA averaged 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Arsenal Tula averaged 0.80 scored and 1.87 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from FC UFA and 0.78 from Arsenal Tula. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 32%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC UFA (green) and Arsenal Tula (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC UFA | LDLDL | 0.90 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Arsenal Tula | WLWLD | 1.30 | 1.90 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 55% | 1.71 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.11 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Spartak Kostroma vs Leningradets · 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Spartak Kostroma Win @ 1.45 - KAMAZ vs FK Neftekhimik · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.27 · FT 2–1 - Enisey vs Torpedo Moskva · 17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.29 · FT 1–2