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1. Lig · Turkey
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fatih Karagümrük host Keçiörengücü in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 19 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü.
Going into the match, Fatih Karagümrük had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Keçiörengücü had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 and 6 of Keçiörengücü's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fatih Karagümrük averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Keçiörengücü averaged 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.13 goals from Fatih Karagümrük and 1.39 from Keçiörengücü. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 41%, against 39%, 27% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fatih Karagümrük (green) and Keçiörengücü (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | LDWDL | 1.30 | 1.30 | 70% | 30% |
| Keçiörengücü | DWDDW | 1.90 | 1.00 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.74 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor · 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–0 - Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 · 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 4–2 - Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor · 19 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 3–4