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1. Lig · Turkey
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Esenler Erokspor host Mardin 1969 in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Esenler Erokspor 4–2 Mardin 1969.
Going into the match, Esenler Erokspor had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Mardin 1969 had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Esenler Erokspor's last 10 and 3 of Mardin 1969's last 10; 2 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Esenler Erokspor averaged 0.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Mardin 1969 averaged 1.13 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.80 goals from Esenler Erokspor and 1.00 from Mardin 1969. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 38%, against 47%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 89%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Esenler Erokspor (green) and Mardin 1969 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | DWLDL | 0.60 | 1.10 | 40% | 20% |
| Mardin 1969 | WWLLW | 1.20 | 0.60 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Bursaspor vs Pendikspor · 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–0 - Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü · 19 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor · 19 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 3–4