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Championship · Scotland
Dunfermline vs Livingston prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dunfermline host Livingston in the Championship (Scotland) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Dunfermline 0–0 Livingston.
Going into the match, Dunfermline had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Livingston had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Dunfermline's last 10 and 4 of Livingston's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dunfermline averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Livingston averaged 1.36 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.87 goals from Dunfermline and 0.95 from Livingston. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 35%, against 36%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 89%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dunfermline (green) and Livingston (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | DLWWD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 50% | 20% |
| Livingston | LLWDW | 1.40 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 Aug 2026 · Livingston 2–0 Dunfermline
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Inverness CT vs Arbroath · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Inverness CT Win @ 1.48 - Morton vs Queen's Park · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–1