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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Dorados vs Piratas prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dorados host Piratas in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Dorados had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 20. Piratas had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Dorados's last 10 and 5 of Piratas's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dorados averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Piratas averaged 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.50 goals from Dorados and 1.55 from Piratas. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 38%, against 22%, 23% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dorados (green) and Piratas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.54 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Piratas Win | 54% | 1.73 |
| Piratas HT & FT | 37% | 2.60 |
| 1-2 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga de Expansión MX matches that day
- CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz · 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.45 - Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG · 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.52 - Venados FC vs Durango · 24 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Double Chance 1X