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UEFA Champions League · International
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction and preview
3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid host Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Atletico Madrid had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 5. Bayern München had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 38 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atletico Madrid's last 10 and 8 of Bayern München's last 10; 5 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Madrid averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Bayern München averaged 2.43 scored and 1.57 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Atletico Madrid and 1.73 from Bayern München. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 45%, against 33%, 24% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Madrid (green) and Bayern München (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | WWDWW | 1.90 | 0.50 | 40% | 50% |
| Bayern München | DWWDW | 3.80 | 1.30 | 80% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 1.36 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 64% | 1.43 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Atletico Madrid form and statistics
- Bayern München form and statistics
- UEFA Champions League statistics
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- Barcelona vs Aston Villa · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Bodo/Glimt vs Lille · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Feyenoord vs Inter · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Lask Linz Win @ 1.44 - Manchester United vs AS Roma · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain · 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart · 3 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP · 3 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44