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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Atlético Astorga vs Gernika prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atlético Astorga host Gernika in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Atlético Astorga had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Gernika had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Astorga's last 10 and 6 of Gernika's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atlético Astorga averaged 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Gernika averaged 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Atlético Astorga and 1.78 from Gernika. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 57%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | LWLLW | 1.30 | 1.40 | 40% | 50% |
| Gernika | LDLDW | 1.50 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Gernika Win | 39% | 2.30 |
| 0-1 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Atlético Astorga form and statistics
- Gernika form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
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Published pick: Sestao River Win @ 1.45 - Amorebieta vs Coruxo · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Llanera vs Compostela · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.30 - Deportivo Alavés II vs Racing Santander II · 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
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Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25